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Originally Posted by bellsbendboy
Saucon: I apologize for misidentifying which Carmouche it was. I have recieved some conflicting emails, but the ones from Louisiana identify yesterdays jock as the "fog" boy. When doing my research many articles also had it wrong. My fault.
Hoss: I agree the horse had no on paper chance. What the others are missing is HOW fast he ran. I have used up my Thorograph privileges but if you go to their redboard room I would be interested in his previous. I see 15's at best and yesterday he put up a 5???
AP Jim: I love other peoples opinions and value yours. Your analysis of the horse is spot on. I would add front bandages are added as a precaution by most trainers when their horses move from one track to another, experience turf, or dirt, for the first time, or drop in selling price, and in these cases generally, should not be viewed as a negative. Paying attention to detail is indeed what unlocks the holy grail of value.
By the way your selection of the horse that finished second is somewhat enigmatic. I realize Amoss trained, but I would urge you avoid; playing any horse on short rest, dropping way back in distance, picking up huge weight, and at a short price.
Hooves: I apologized for my post a few weeks back, that was intended as private and see little reason for your continued animosity. I do not attempt to talk down to people.
FYI: buzzers are used primarily on rainy/sloppy days for three big reasons.
Dan your post is terriffic. Some horses run from the joint and some do not. Same as blinkers on. Most cappers go foolishly go to the DRF statistic and it is, as false a stat as in the drf.
I once again apologize for besmirching the elder Carmouche; it was unintentional. BBB
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I do view the bandages as a negative when the performance confirms it, as in this case. This is not an absolute, its not always a negative. But if they go on after a layoff, as in this case, and while they are on the horse runs completely out of prior form, then you see them come off and at the same time you see a definite sign of improvement? you can fill in the blanks for yourself.
Regarding your comments about my selection? All I can say is that sometimes horses do win on short rest, cutting back and putting on weight. You can't just assume that when those conditions are present the horse can't win. Its all relative to the competition. And personally I don't know why you call 4.4 to 1 a short price. He was the fourth favorite in a field of eight. The horse that did barely beat him ran a new top figure that you yourself can hardly believe and my horse was clear of the third place horse by six lengths. I do not look back on that race and kick myself for betting the wrong horse.
BTW I handicapped the entire card and posted it on another site. I had five winners and two seconds out of the ten races.