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Originally Posted by bellsbendboy
Hoss: I agree the horse had no on paper chance. What the others are missing is HOW fast he ran. I have used up my Thorograph privileges but if you go to their redboard room I would be interested in his previous. I see 15's at best and yesterday he put up a 5???
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BBB -- Since I have not used up my privileges at Thorograph, I'm more than happy to provide a quick analysis to help you out here.
Direct Splash's best Thorograph figure before Sunday was a 9. That number doesn't match up with the best figures put forward by the rest of the field (6-7)-- but their form is only sporatically good at best as well. His comebacker after the break was a turf try (conditioning? failed experiment? either way it didn't work). His form improved markedly once the wraps came off at Delta last out.
Note also that in his first five starts he never broke a 19, then all the sudden in two races in December of last year he raced once earning a 20, and came right back on short rest to earn a 10 -- that indicates to me that he's capable of taking huge jumps forward in form at just about any time even if they are without any consistency.
Given that his career best figure easily puts him within a half-dozen lengths of the other horses' respective best figures, and given the inconsistent nature of all of the entrants figures -- he could very well have been seen as an exotics contender at a fat price. Once you add in the track condition, it appears that it was the sort of race where anything could happen -- and it did.
The runner-up Saucey Tiger was coming off of both of his career top numbers (6) in his 36th and 37th career starts....given the nature of that improvement at that stage in his career....it would not be an asylum-worthy thought to wonder how many more times this horse could pair up that effort.
The favorite Setemup Joe had figures that were generally better (6-9), and some modicum of consistency that was lacking in the rest of the field. However, his off-track performances indicate that with track conditions like Sunday's, he was more likely to toss a figure somewhere around 11 or 12, which we've already established would not be good enough to beat Direct Splash's best.
Second choice Cutoff Time doesn't seem to have too much going for him on paper outside of the trainer change.....so there are some glaring holes in that one too.
Finally, to your beef with him running a better time than Teuflesburg....that can easily be explained. Look at who that two-year old was up against. He most likely wouldn't have needed to run any better than an 8 or a 9 to win that stakes race, as only the second choice Probation Ready had run a number that would be competitive if Teuflesburg ran a 9 (which seems likely, as it's generally about his "par" race. He pops better numbers and slouches off at worse numbers, but it is not crazy to believe that he would run an 8 or 9 in the stakes race Sunday as that number is basically his "average").
Given all of this -- it seems likely that Direct Splash, with the lead, the slop, and the rail probably only improved his best figure by a point or two at best -- I wouldn't be shocked for his Thorograph figure from Sunday to come back around a 7. It would certainly fit.
I would never have played him, but given all of the intangibles, it certainly was not the most shocking outcome we will ever see in this lifetime...certainly not the type that merits the sort of dickhead post that started this thread.
It all sounds like a lot of losing tickets and sour grapes to me.
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Originally Posted by ArlJim78
If you look at his form there is definitely a break after the race in May where obviously something went wrong. Before that he was routinely in the mix in state bred allowance and stakes. After the time off he came back twice with wraps and finished far back. Then he got another break and he came back at Delta without the wraps and SURPRISE, he shows improvement. In fact he shows better late pace then he has since February when he was third in a stakes race. This is your clue that he might be on the way back and ready for a peak effort. the off track just sealed the deal for him.
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Thanks for this analysis, it made my Thorograph explanation much easier.