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Originally Posted by bellsbendboy
Jim: I was not using the front bandage comments for this case in particular. Most handicappers view there addition as negative, and that is often not always the case.
As far as 4-1 being good odds, they are not to me. I am strictly a pick 4 player. Other than my posted pick 4's, I played a horse everyday at Keeneland (Fall meet). I made maybe six or eight other win bets thruout the year (either $20, $50 or $100 increments) and, made a handful of bets when I lost early in a pick 4 and "liked" a price in a later leg using win and/or trifecta pools.
I try and often succeed to get odds of at least 40-1 and hopefully 100-1 or more on those pick 4 bets, by "bending". My smallest hit was $118? when Silver Train won the Met Mile. My bet was posted on TG, cost $8 and most of the board posted the winning ticket. (the other 3 legs were turf heats with the rails way out and all were won by wire to wire favorites).
My largest was $10,265 on a $32 ticket at Oaklawn (posted @ dmtc) on a 4x4x2x1 configuration. I was lucky running 1,2,3,4 in each of the first two legs with the longest priced horse winning both legs. The next smallest was $480 opening night at Delmar on a $12 wager winning both stakes by a nostril and next largest at Louisiana Downs, hitting twice on consecutive Sundays; once for $2000 ($36) and once for $379 three times, when they paid 3 of 4 on a $18 configuration.
The "Nottawasaga" $969 pick 4 @ Keeneland (dmtc) ( I made almost as much on the win bet!) and another paid $706.40 on 3/12/06 at Oaklawn that I do not recall were under a grand. Oddly the six others, paid between $1026 and $1473, on bets from $16 to $36. When I bet $48 tickets, about ten times, I lost every time. I estimate maybe 65 pick 4 plays. I had a career year. I never (anymore) get sour grapes and seldom lose my objectivity. I also do not cherry pick playing almost every Sunday on the best Midwest track running.
Getting back to Direct Splash you and/or Brianspenc said that DS ran a life time top by a couple of TG points. ( He did). Question: How many horses ever have run a new lifetime top by ten to fifteen lengths in their 17th start after an X x x pattern? Answer: None.
Do I think Carmouche plugged the horse in? Absolutely. Does Carmouche have a track record indicating such behavior? Absolutely. I recieved some emails from some Nola people, all of them concurring and several suggested he buzzed the horse the last time the horse won. The TG people had some interesting posts. One by a very good capper related that in the late 80's in Louisiana in a 6f, 12 horse field, after they were all loaded the starter announced that the stewards called down and said they knew a rider had a joint. But if the rider dropped it there would be no investigation! The gate opened and the assistant starters found seven batteries.
I do not know how to paste, cut or copy. Nice job in the slop Jim w/5of 10. My last bet of the year will be in the Malibu tonite and you did not mention the horse I like! Perhaps he is a scratch. Good cappin. BBB
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No offense meant, but this is just awful.
In anther post of yours, you related your "expertise" was specialzed on midwestern area tracks including Fairgrounds. You also obviously post on some Louisiana based horse forum.
Yet now you demonstrate disdain for Cajun state racing? Sorry, but it doesn't make any sense. None. How can you focus so very hard ("all with lots of homework," you said), play one ticket in a week and even remotely consider playing there?
It just seems every post you make circles back to a nice win you accomplished.
What I found least appealing was the title you chose for the post, "Fixed Race ..." Not, "Odd looking race ...," etc.... Bottom line is you do not know what happened. Do you?