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Old 12-27-2006, 12:44 PM
bellsbendboy
 
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B spencer Sorry for the foray into Thorograph and muddying the waters. Lets use Beyers:

Beyerwise Direct Splash is at best a 70 horse, with lousy form (your assessment that he improved dramatically in his last is mostly meritless, his time would not have beat $4000 claimers on the same card) and could not be expected to run his lifetime best given that form.

Three winners on the same card also won their last. High adventure (last race Beyer 88), Teuflesberg (86) and Nowand forever (97). All won impressively. Lets foolishly assume Beyerwise all regressed.

Direct Splash was faster than all of these. If he Beyered as low as 80 he improved roughly fifteen lengths. His win price dictates the owners, the exercise boy and the jock were all that were in on it. The win price caught my attention, the horses pp's and subsequent final time confirmed the fix.

STS I love the Fairgrounds and adore Louisiana Downs but hold disdain for Evangeline and Delta and bet them once or twice every decade or so. Similarly, I relish Keeneland and CD but do not care for Ellis or Latonia. My "circuit" would be the best midwest track running. I posted my successes because this will be my last post for a week or more (vacation) and all the flack I recieved questioning my hits. I have some very interesting theories on playing the pick 4 and would rather have shared them than defend myself even if it was my best year. One of my techniques I employ I have termed "bending" (the ticket) and it is as much statistical as it is handicapping. I hold a degree in finance from the university of Ky (13 yrs and they give you a diploma to get rid of you, gpa 2.08 thank you). and one of my professors in ststistics gave me a head start. "Bending" minimizes investment while maximizes payoffs!!

As far as What happened I do not know. But I can guarantee Sylvester will not be charged. Louisiana only has 4 million people and it would be hard to find twelve impartial jurors regarding this case out of such a small pool. LOL

Congrats to the pick 4 players in Arcadia last night, good solid analysis by all with a winner to boot. Nice work. Also over the last year, 99% of the horses that Wayne Lukas worked has had the same comments from everyone..." sharp early speed, dull finish" I do think "pegasus is a very nice colt and if he moves on will be a nice 3yo. Happy new year to all. Good cappin. BBB
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