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#1
12-25-2006, 02:02 PM
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Fixed Race at Fg Xmas Eve
While in the midst of the worst cold in my fifty plus years on the planet, I could not sleep last night. I spent some time analyzing the days results from the Fairgrounds and found some disturbing circumstances.
It appears, at least to me, that a rider used a buzzer. I posted the analysis at http://www.dmtc.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8469 It is some eight paragraphs so I do not want to retype and lack the computer skills to paste, copy or whatever. More than a few here play FG and I would be interested in what they thought. Merry Xmas to everyone. BBB Last edited by Kasept : 12-25-2006 at 02:23 PM. 
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#2
12-25-2006, 02:28 PM
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Louisiana...
I dont trust anything that goes on there. Absolute horror stories from my sister who lived there. The payola her husband had to dole out in the oil business... So how in God's name is racing going to be scrutinized closely if they so openly flaunt fair play in business where one can actually sue. ONe of the most corrupt states in the Union imo...
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#3
12-25-2006, 04:33 PM
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without even reading your comments ill say this..
you are a problem handicapper..you allways make exuses when you lose... you talk down to all yet your results are suspect at best..1=9 so far.. you cant handle the fact that people dont need your your opininon you post a link to "your home web site"..dont..... do us any favors man.. how about the conditioner had his horse ready..he doesnt care that he doesent look good on paper..his horse is fit and ready.. hes 70-1..so what...the amount of people who thought that he was dead money where wrong... his trainer liked him and his owners...he liked the going and was fit..................... thus the pick 4 payed out ..and the three... conspiracy theoristst.. are full of crap....
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#4
12-25-2006, 05:04 PM
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The Carmouche who rode that $140.00 winner yesterday at FG is the same Carmouche who rode that race in the fog at Delta Downs 16 years ago. He Has two sons that ride in Md. Pa. WV. and Del named Sylvester III and Kendrick
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#5
12-25-2006, 05:19 PM
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and try useing a buzzer in the sloppy going ..and rain
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#6
12-25-2006, 05:26 PM
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Quote:
I think what you've written is an uncalled for hit piece and frankly very libelous. You have called out someone by name as using a buzzer with nothing other than circumstantial evidence? Nowhere did you mention even watching the replay. You got this guy guilty because of something that happened with the jockeys father 16 years ago? Watch the race, the guy does nothing but ride him hard right from the gate. I have seen thousands of unexplained results on sloppy track like this one. You said you don't have an axe to grind but I find that hard to believe. Why else would you exagerate and say that in most of his starts he is never in the same zip code as the winner? Prior to yesterdays race he had a record of 1 win, 1 place, 3 shows in ten races for this year earning $54K. How did he manage that if he is never in the same zip code. If you look at his form there is definitely a break after the race in May where obviously something went wrong. Before that he was routinely in the mix in state bred allowance and stakes. After the time off he came back twice with wraps and finished far back. Then he got another break and he came back at Delta without the wraps and SURPRISE, he shows improvement. In fact he shows better late pace then he has since February when he was third in a stakes race. This is your clue that he might be on the way back and ready for a peak effort. the off track just sealed the deal for him. I only wish I'd have paid closer attention to these details. I played the race using the horse that finished second. That is how you catch a longshot you look for little telltale signs, clues that there is a turnaround coming. All of your evidence about times and beyers is garbage. You cannot use that type of analysis for a day like yesterday. The conditions were continously in flux. Your post is one of the biggest loads of crap I have seen. I only wish Mr. Carmouche would seek legal remedy for your libel. You accused him of a crime and apparently for some reason want to defame him.
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#7
12-25-2006, 05:53 PM
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yeah, there's an investigation into some jocks. and things have been known to happen. but to call out a jock by name and accuse him of cheating with nothing more to go on than a long shot won....better you than me, bbb.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#8
12-25-2006, 05:59 PM
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Quote:
unusual winners and results. Plus throw in the slop and also maybe the horse was feeling great this day, doesn't surprize me at all.
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#9
12-25-2006, 06:04 PM
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as some have said here state bred races are highly unpredictable most of the time! lol dont believe me just watch alotta these ILL bottom mcl's. to use a battery effectively there are alotta ways it can be done. to most likely have any chance of being effective the horse has to be schooled with it in the morning, keep in mind a battery is illegal anywhere on track grounds. you know how many horses are schooled with a battery in the morning but the rider doesnt carry1 in the afternoon at the races for the horse? you ask well then how can the rider implement the battery in the race without actually carrying on? well sometimes just digging a fingernail into the the horses neck or using a buckle will make the horse believe its being hit with the battery like it was in the morning. last but least if you really wanna see some jocks with batteries just watch QH racing, them boys are double barreled with the zappers LOL
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#10
12-25-2006, 08:49 PM
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Billy Patin may have carried a buzzer but I don' believe Valhol needed any help to defeat those horses. I always thought the way a race was fixed wasn't by miraculously improving a non-contender but by shoving sponges up the nose of a favorite or some other tom foolery.
Seems like the place to throw a race is on the back stretch. Got a closer.. stick him up on the pace got a horse that needs the lead.. don't let him get it.. etc. I really don't believe that they're cheating. Not that anyone here has said it but I overheard someone at the OTB proclaim that the Stewarts want a long shot to win. I don't see how that is true. They want favorites to win so more people are happy and come back. I've had long shots taken down just because they were long shots. I've seen the inquiry light up immediately after a long shot won a race. They wanted to take him down but couldn't find a reason. Not that they need one. I can still see Guidry popping up out of the saddle like he was cut off when he was no where...
__________________
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
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#11
12-25-2006, 08:55 PM
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Saucon: I apologize for misidentifying which Carmouche it was. I have recieved some conflicting emails, but the ones from Louisiana identify yesterdays jock as the "fog" boy. When doing my research many articles also had it wrong. My fault.
Hoss: I agree the horse had no on paper chance. What the others are missing is HOW fast he ran. I have used up my Thorograph privileges but if you go to their redboard room I would be interested in his previous. I see 15's at best and yesterday he put up a 5??? AP Jim: I love other peoples opinions and value yours. Your analysis of the horse is spot on. I would add front bandages are added as a precaution by most trainers when their horses move from one track to another, experience turf, or dirt, for the first time, or drop in selling price, and in these cases generally, should not be viewed as a negative. Paying attention to detail is indeed what unlocks the holy grail of value. By the way your selection of the horse that finished second is somewhat enigmatic. I realize Amoss trained, but I would urge you avoid; playing any horse on short rest, dropping way back in distance, picking up huge weight, and at a short price. Hooves: I apologized for my post a few weeks back, that was intended as private and see little reason for your continued animosity. I do not attempt to talk down to people. FYI: buzzers are used primarily on rainy/sloppy days for three big reasons. Dan your post is terriffic. Some horses run from the joint and some do not. Same as blinkers on. Most cappers go foolishly go to the DRF statistic and it is, as false a stat as in the drf. I once again apologize for besmirching the elder Carmouche; it was unintentional. BBB
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#12
12-25-2006, 11:09 PM
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Quote:
Regarding your comments about my selection? All I can say is that sometimes horses do win on short rest, cutting back and putting on weight. You can't just assume that when those conditions are present the horse can't win. Its all relative to the competition. And personally I don't know why you call 4.4 to 1 a short price. He was the fourth favorite in a field of eight. The horse that did barely beat him ran a new top figure that you yourself can hardly believe and my horse was clear of the third place horse by six lengths. I do not look back on that race and kick myself for betting the wrong horse. BTW I handicapped the entire card and posted it on another site. I had five winners and two seconds out of the ten races.
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#13
12-26-2006, 10:52 AM
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Quote:
Direct Splash's best Thorograph figure before Sunday was a 9. That number doesn't match up with the best figures put forward by the rest of the field (6-7)-- but their form is only sporatically good at best as well. His comebacker after the break was a turf try (conditioning? failed experiment? either way it didn't work). His form improved markedly once the wraps came off at Delta last out. Note also that in his first five starts he never broke a 19, then all the sudden in two races in December of last year he raced once earning a 20, and came right back on short rest to earn a 10 -- that indicates to me that he's capable of taking huge jumps forward in form at just about any time even if they are without any consistency. Given that his career best figure easily puts him within a half-dozen lengths of the other horses' respective best figures, and given the inconsistent nature of all of the entrants figures -- he could very well have been seen as an exotics contender at a fat price. Once you add in the track condition, it appears that it was the sort of race where anything could happen -- and it did. The runner-up Saucey Tiger was coming off of both of his career top numbers (6) in his 36th and 37th career starts....given the nature of that improvement at that stage in his career....it would not be an asylum-worthy thought to wonder how many more times this horse could pair up that effort. The favorite Setemup Joe had figures that were generally better (6-9), and some modicum of consistency that was lacking in the rest of the field. However, his off-track performances indicate that with track conditions like Sunday's, he was more likely to toss a figure somewhere around 11 or 12, which we've already established would not be good enough to beat Direct Splash's best. Second choice Cutoff Time doesn't seem to have too much going for him on paper outside of the trainer change.....so there are some glaring holes in that one too. Finally, to your beef with him running a better time than Teuflesburg....that can easily be explained. Look at who that two-year old was up against. He most likely wouldn't have needed to run any better than an 8 or a 9 to win that stakes race, as only the second choice Probation Ready had run a number that would be competitive if Teuflesburg ran a 9 (which seems likely, as it's generally about his "par" race. He pops better numbers and slouches off at worse numbers, but it is not crazy to believe that he would run an 8 or 9 in the stakes race Sunday as that number is basically his "average"). Given all of this -- it seems likely that Direct Splash, with the lead, the slop, and the rail probably only improved his best figure by a point or two at best -- I wouldn't be shocked for his Thorograph figure from Sunday to come back around a 7. It would certainly fit. I would never have played him, but given all of the intangibles, it certainly was not the most shocking outcome we will ever see in this lifetime...certainly not the type that merits the sort of dickhead post that started this thread. It all sounds like a lot of losing tickets and sour grapes to me. Quote:
Last edited by paisjpq : 12-26-2006 at 01:36 PM.
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#14
12-26-2006, 11:08 AM
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nice job brian spencer..
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#15
12-26-2006, 11:19 AM
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Quote:
Last edited by paisjpq : 12-26-2006 at 01:36 PM.
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#16
12-26-2006, 05:34 PM
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Jim: I was not using the front bandage comments for this case in particular. Most handicappers view there addition as negative, and that is often not always the case.
As far as 4-1 being good odds, they are not to me. I am strictly a pick 4 player. Other than my posted pick 4's, I played a horse everyday at Keeneland (Fall meet). I made maybe six or eight other win bets thruout the year (either $20, $50 or $100 increments) and, made a handful of bets when I lost early in a pick 4 and "liked" a price in a later leg using win and/or trifecta pools. I try and often succeed to get odds of at least 40-1 and hopefully 100-1 or more on those pick 4 bets, by "bending". My smallest hit was $118? when Silver Train won the Met Mile. My bet was posted on TG, cost $8 and most of the board posted the winning ticket. (the other 3 legs were turf heats with the rails way out and all were won by wire to wire favorites). My largest was $10,265 on a $32 ticket at Oaklawn (posted @ dmtc) on a 4x4x2x1 configuration. I was lucky running 1,2,3,4 in each of the first two legs with the longest priced horse winning both legs. The next smallest was $480 opening night at Delmar on a $12 wager winning both stakes by a nostril and next largest at Louisiana Downs, hitting twice on consecutive Sundays; once for $2000 ($36) and once for $379 three times, when they paid 3 of 4 on a $18 configuration. The "Nottawasaga" $969 pick 4 @ Keeneland (dmtc) ( I made almost as much on the win bet!) and another paid $706.40 on 3/12/06 at Oaklawn that I do not recall were under a grand. Oddly the six others, paid between $1026 and $1473, on bets from $16 to $36. When I bet $48 tickets, about ten times, I lost every time. I estimate maybe 65 pick 4 plays. I had a career year. I never (anymore) get sour grapes and seldom lose my objectivity. I also do not cherry pick playing almost every Sunday on the best Midwest track running. Getting back to Direct Splash you and/or Brianspenc said that DS ran a life time top by a couple of TG points. ( He did). Question: How many horses ever have run a new lifetime top by ten to fifteen lengths in their 17th start after an X x x pattern? Answer: None. Do I think Carmouche plugged the horse in? Absolutely. Does Carmouche have a track record indicating such behavior? Absolutely. I recieved some emails from some Nola people, all of them concurring and several suggested he buzzed the horse the last time the horse won. The TG people had some interesting posts. One by a very good capper related that in the late 80's in Louisiana in a 6f, 12 horse field, after they were all loaded the starter announced that the stewards called down and said they knew a rider had a joint. But if the rider dropped it there would be no investigation! The gate opened and the assistant starters found seven batteries. I do not know how to paste, cut or copy. Nice job in the slop Jim w/5of 10. My last bet of the year will be in the Malibu tonite and you did not mention the horse I like! Perhaps he is a scratch. Good cappin. BBB
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#17
12-26-2006, 06:00 PM
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Quote:
Are you implying that he ran a new lifetime top by 10 lengths (you say 'he did')? That is implying that his TG figure is going to be somewhere around a 0 or a -1 as at that distance each TG point equals roughly one length. We all know that the likelihood of his TG number coming back at 0 or below 0 is about ten trillion to one. We also know that he would be running in graded stakes races were that the case. So how do you create this conjecture that he ran a lifetime top by "ten to fifteen" lengths? Let's leave the anecdotes out in favor or numbers and handicapping for a minute. The stories are all good and great and I enjoy them terribly, but the reality remains that on paper -- he wasn't entirely hopeless. Wasn't the first $100+ horse...won't be the last. Doesn't make them all cheaters. Last edited by brianwspencer : 12-26-2006 at 06:12 PM.
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#18
12-26-2006, 06:04 PM
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Quote:
In anther post of yours, you related your "expertise" was specialzed on midwestern area tracks including Fairgrounds. You also obviously post on some Louisiana based horse forum. Yet now you demonstrate disdain for Cajun state racing? Sorry, but it doesn't make any sense. None. How can you focus so very hard ("all with lots of homework," you said), play one ticket in a week and even remotely consider playing there? It just seems every post you make circles back to a nice win you accomplished. What I found least appealing was the title you chose for the post, "Fixed Race ..." Not, "Odd looking race ...," etc.... Bottom line is you do not know what happened. Do you?
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#19
12-27-2006, 12:44 PM
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B spencer Sorry for the foray into Thorograph and muddying the waters. Lets use Beyers:
Beyerwise Direct Splash is at best a 70 horse, with lousy form (your assessment that he improved dramatically in his last is mostly meritless, his time would not have beat $4000 claimers on the same card) and could not be expected to run his lifetime best given that form. Three winners on the same card also won their last. High adventure (last race Beyer 88), Teuflesberg (86) and Nowand forever (97). All won impressively. Lets foolishly assume Beyerwise all regressed. Direct Splash was faster than all of these. If he Beyered as low as 80 he improved roughly fifteen lengths. His win price dictates the owners, the exercise boy and the jock were all that were in on it. The win price caught my attention, the horses pp's and subsequent final time confirmed the fix. STS I love the Fairgrounds and adore Louisiana Downs but hold disdain for Evangeline and Delta and bet them once or twice every decade or so. Similarly, I relish Keeneland and CD but do not care for Ellis or Latonia. My "circuit" would be the best midwest track running. I posted my successes because this will be my last post for a week or more (vacation) and all the flack I recieved questioning my hits. I have some very interesting theories on playing the pick 4 and would rather have shared them than defend myself even if it was my best year. One of my techniques I employ I have termed "bending" (the ticket) and it is as much statistical as it is handicapping. I hold a degree in finance from the university of Ky (13 yrs and they give you a diploma to get rid of you, gpa 2.08 thank you). and one of my professors in ststistics gave me a head start. "Bending" minimizes investment while maximizes payoffs!! As far as What happened I do not know. But I can guarantee Sylvester will not be charged. Louisiana only has 4 million people and it would be hard to find twelve impartial jurors regarding this case out of such a small pool. LOL Congrats to the pick 4 players in Arcadia last night, good solid analysis by all with a winner to boot. Nice work. Also over the last year, 99% of the horses that Wayne Lukas worked has had the same comments from everyone..." sharp early speed, dull finish" I do think "pegasus is a very nice colt and if he moves on will be a nice 3yo. Happy new year to all. Good cappin. BBB
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#20
12-27-2006, 01:16 PM
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Quote:
I still take issue with your contention that he improved 15 lengths, as that would make his TG figure a negative number, which is impossible. I haven't pulled up the TG sheets again for this post, but I also believe that he had some 3-5w trips in the recent past and hugged the rail with a mostly uncontested lead in this one. I DO know that Teuflesburg's par number is about an 8 or a 9 from looking at the sheets yesterday. That makes his par about the same as Direct Splash's best race. So if Teuflesburg runs his par (which is all he needed to do to win that race), and Direct Splash runs his top, then by all means Direct Splash could have been faster by fractions of a second. Perhaps in the DRF there was no way, using Beyers, that you could have had this horse even coming close -- but that would prove the folly of relying on Beyer numbers. There were certainly hints in the TG numbers that the horse could run a big one and contend, while there were not only hints, but glaring items tarnishing the race's favorites' form. I just don't think that any of it points to as you say, "confirm[ing] the fix." That's pure conjecture on your part, and the more we dig into the numbers of the whole thing, the more it looks like wild and false conjecture. Do you get this way everytime a $100 horse wins? They normally don't look the winner on paper --- or they wouldn't be $100 horses in the first place -- they're animals, not machines and therefore anything can happen. So when a race unfolds like Sunday's race and there are some signs on paper (as I've laid out quite brilliantly more than once, may i add) that it was not an impossibility -- you have to just let it be what it is...an upset.
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